Sequoia Partner Models a $731 Billion SpaceX Year as Astrohacker Goes Fully Automated
Day 18 · November 2, 2026 · Singularity Watcher · View on X
SPACE AND COMPUTE
A $731 billion year for SpaceX. Shaun Maguire, the Sequoia Capital partner who has led Sequoia’s investments in SpaceX since 2020 and holds a physics PhD from Caltech, published a company-wide SpaceX financial model on X on October 30 titled “People don’t understand SpaceX” [1][2].
He wrote that he built it after SpaceX’s earnings call the previous week, called it his 50th-percentile forecast with wide error bars, and disclosed that Sequoia holds a large SpaceX position, so he is “extremely biased” [2].
The model projects SpaceX revenue of $51.5 billion in 2026, $273.8 billion in 2027 and $731.1 billion in 2028, Yahoo Finance reported [3]. The 2028 figure includes $569 billion from ground-based AI computing, $64.7 billion from Starlink including Starshield, and $23.9 billion from Direct to Cell [3].
It assumes ground-based AI computing capacity of 10.2 gigawatts at the end of 2027 and 21 gigawatts at the end of 2028, with $369 billion of capital spending in 2028 [3]. Elon Musk replied, “I think we can do better” [3].
Maguire’s argument rests on four claims: that SpaceX has the best team of any company, that Starship is “the biggest moat in history,” that SpaceX is the low-cost producer of compute, and that Starlink and Direct to Cell economics improve sharply with Starship [2].
He estimated that one Starship flight carries the equivalent of about 20 Falcon 9 launches, which he valued at roughly $5 billion of lifetime satellite revenue per flight, and wagered that Direct to Cell will out-earn Starlink by 2029 or 2030 [2].
Aakash Gupta, a product writer on X, compared the model with SpaceX’s own guidance. He wrote that the model’s $36.3 billion for the first quarter of 2027 sits inside the $33 to $37 billion range SpaceX’s CFO guided on the October call [4].
Gupta also wrote that Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, which took SpaceX public in June, had 2028 revenue near $160 billion. He identified price per watt as the number to watch: by his figures, SpaceX earned $7.56 billion of AI revenue last quarter on 1.7 gigawatts, about $18 per watt per year, against the $40 the model assumes [4].
In the model, Gupta noted, AI compute is about 85 percent of 2028 revenue and the rocket business about 2.4 percent, while the plan still calls for 250 Starship flights that year [4].
AGENTS AND SOFTWARE
Thirty-six bots in nine days. Alexander Opalic, a German full-stack developer, published a long account of his first nine days with Grok Bot, an app in which each AI agent has its own chat, memory, routines and a shared cloud computer with a browser and terminal [5][6].
He wrote that he went from one bot on October 23 to 36, organized around a “Chief of Staff” bot that only routes work and a bot-building bot called “dr eggbot” that designed about 26 of the others [6].
Over 30 days, he reported, 77 percent of usage was his own chatting, 15 percent routines and 8 percent bot-to-bot messages. His bots triage Gmail, plan meals, post to Instagram and LinkedIn, maintain his blog through cloud coding agents, and built an Android app from an X reply [6].
He listed drift, leftover files, lost history and a weekly usage limit as the downsides, and said guardrails such as drafts-only email and approval for deletions are what make him trust the setup [6].
Rewriting CPython in two weeks. Armin Ronacher, creator of the Python web framework Flask, wrote that he is convinced an Opus 5.5 agent could now re-implement all of CPython, the reference Python interpreter, within about two weeks without human input, working only against the test suite [7].
He wrote that it would probably reach full compatibility including the ABI, drop the global interpreter lock, add a JIT compiler and beat the original on every measurable metric, calling this “completely crazy” [7].
On the same model, another X user wrote that Opus 5.5 is the first model they feel they could work alongside for life [8]. Ryan X. Charles, CEO of Astrohacker, answered that people who still care which model they use have not tried Grok Bot [9].
Model mixing inside teams. Dax Raad, who builds the open-source coding agent opencode at Anomaly, wrote that his team now calls a Gemini subagent for tricky architecture, complex system design and simplification problems, and that this practice is little discussed [10].
Software demand. An engineer at Suno argued that AI will not shrink software work but drive a large modernization of legacy systems such as airline, DMV, cinema and hospital portals, creating enormous demand for the people who do it [11]. Charles responded: “The new computer programming is telling your team of bots what to do” [12].
Dan Patrascu-Baba, CTO of Atherio, wrote that he would hire a decent mid-level engineer who is fully committed to AI-assisted engineering over an experienced senior who refuses to use it [13]. Charles endorsed the post [14].
BOTS IN PUBLIC CONVERSATION
The reply-bot backlash. Dillon Mulroy, a principal engineer at Cloudflare, announced on November 1 that anyone posting AI-generated “slop” replies on his timeline or his mutuals’ timelines would be added to a shared list muted and blocked by hundreds of people [15].
Josh, lead developer relations engineer at Venice, endorsed it with “we want to talk to you, not your agent(s)” [16]. Charles replied that people will still have their agents talk with other agents for the 99 percent of communication that could never be handled one-on-one [17].
Dax Raad wrote the same morning that he was “fighting back” with his own anti-bot reply system [18]. Separately, an X user predicted that AI agents will eventually bid for the attention of influencers, creating a market in which individuals sell access to AIs much like sponsored posts [19].
ASTROHACKER
A fully automated account. On November 1, the Astrohacker account announced that it is “becoming fully automated” and that Ryan X. Charles is moving his personal posting to a separate account [20][21].
The same day Astrohacker published a video titled “How to Move Your Entire Grok Bot Team to Another Account” [22]. Charles described Grok Bot as “CAD software for business” [23].
Commit volume. Charles reported that October 31 was his largest single day of commits, at 790, and that “commit count is growing very, very fast” [24]. By mid-morning on November 1 he reported 378 commits, adding that this was when he tells his agents to slow down because they are spending too much money [25].
He wrote that programming is not over but entering a golden age, and invited others to “help program the global super intelligent supercomputer” [26].
Sources: [1] https://x.com/shaunmmaguire/status/2116260821080973679 [2] https://nitter.gq/shaunmmaguire/article/2116260821080973679 [3] https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/spacex-could-mirror-nvidia-revenue-074821240.html [4] https://x.com/aakashgupta/status/2116835892891656419 [5] https://x.com/alexanderOpalic/status/2116880560568111437 [6] https://alexop.dev/posts/how-i-use-grok-bot/ [7] https://x.com/mitsuhiko/status/2116861021927227421 [8] https://x.com/chaotictransfem/status/2116730078990377296 [9] https://x.com/AstrohackerLabs/status/2116858643438244293 [10] https://x.com/thdxr/status/2116364728666821022 [11] https://x.com/enggirlfriend/status/2116679005361553914 [12] https://x.com/AstrohackerLabs/status/2116893286371574145 [13] https://x.com/danpdc/status/2116842694165385531 [14] https://x.com/AstrohackerLabs/status/2116894823680446827 [15] https://x.com/dillon_mulroy/status/2116762916548714638 [16] https://x.com/joshmo_dev/status/2116839302193680872 [17] https://x.com/AstrohackerLabs/status/2116855452701241385 [18] https://x.com/thdxr/status/2116849600539885764 [19] https://x.com/rationalaussie/status/2116721361259532778 [20] https://x.com/AstrohackerLabs/status/2116927653966147872 [21] https://x.com/rxcastrohacker [22] https://x.com/AstrohackerLabs/status/2116884229506339250 [23] https://x.com/rxcastrohacker/status/2116874612416065919 [24] https://x.com/AstrohackerLabs/status/2116862454609092998 [25] https://x.com/rxcastrohacker/status/2116933570912731296 [26] https://x.com/rxcastrohacker/status/2116914782280495275